Gorton & Denton, A Tale of Persuasion: The Lead Up Vs The Vote

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The first parliamentary by-election of 2026 arrived amid an MP's dismissal, a huge campaign and an intense social media strategy. With Hannah Spencer, the Green Party candidate - and now victor - dubbing the election “an appeal for trust” and a “battle against fear”. With the results now in, let us analyse the effectiveness of the persuasive tactics that were on strong display and hypothesise how far these persuasions may have impacted the outcome. (Spencer 2026)


The Lead Up: Why a by-election?

Andrew Gwynne, the former MP for Gorton and Denton, stood down due to ill health. He had previously served as the MP for the area (formerly known as Denton and Reddish) from 2005 until 2026. However, in the last year of his parliamentary career, he served as an Independent MP after being suspended from the Labour Party. This was the result of leaked WhatsApp messages, which led to a Parliamentary Watchman enquiry. 



The Lead Up: Social Media 

It was clear that Hannah Spencer's brand was her. She was the Manchester Plumber and the person who wanted to get locals on her side. Person first, party second. The Greens Party's social media, as well as her own, focused on making her appear authentic. Overall, an effective and successful campaign teaching massive engagement and an individual most of the nation began to get behind. To me, it was only towards the end of the campaign that I began to see a stronger push to link her to the party as a whole. You may feel free to disagree, as each person has their own unique social media algorithm, but this is how it came across to me.


While most parties used their leadership to propel their new candidates to political stardom, the Labour Party relied most heavily on this image. Andy Burnham's increasing popularity as a proposed replacement to the incumbent leader, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, certainly made a strong headline. The National Executive Committee’s decision to prevent Mr Burnham, the Mayor for Greater Manchester, from running was divisive both internally and externally to the party. 


The Labour Party promoted Angeliki Stogia through a variety of party-led promotional material and personal material. Her Instagram account is covered with engaging reels - from speaking to voters, to catching up in her favourite Manchester cafes. A real focus was placed on promoting Angeliki as someone who has made Manchester her home. For Ms Stogia, "unity, not division" takes on a different meaning. With Reform UK's growing plans for hypothetical deportations - should they be elected - people like her, with indefinite leave to remain, could be challenged on their right to remain.


Social media was a particularly powerful tool between leaders and deputy leaders of the Greens and the Labour Party. Lucy Powell MP, the Deputy Leader of Labour, wrote to Zack Polanski early in the campaign to ask for cooperation between “the left” to tackle Reform. Polanski waited three weeks to respond to Powell, before stating the Greens were now ahead and focused on winning. At times, the letters between leaders presented a fractious environment. I, for one, would not wish to have been the people of Gorton and Denton during this time. 


Reform UK chose a Hitchin based, former University lecturer turned TV presenter, Matthew Goodwin. The party has mostly seen promotional material through glossy stylised videos of speeches. Goodwin's campaign is strongly aligned with the promotional nature of Reform's core identity - focused on immigration with a strong turquoise tint. 



The Lead Up: Polling 

Let's start by examining the data from the 2024 General Election. The incumbent MP, in the newly formed Gorton and Denton constituency, received a vote share of 50.8%, a loss of 16.8%. Reform UK came second with 14.1% of the vote. The Greens came third with 13.2% of the vote, a gain of 10.7%. While Labour appear to have lost overall votes, it's important to remember the overall voter turnout here was around 13% lower than in 2019. 


Gorton and Denton - General election results 2024 - BBC News https://share.google/O37Ay2QvpdnCRrczu


So, before the election, Labour had strong data for why they should poll first. 2024 was a credible set of results, however governing is not easy. Reform UK had been polling ahead of Labour for much of the past few months. A YouGov poll from the middle of January placed Reform on XYZ % and Labour on XYZ%. 


What about the Greens? They too have grown in popularity under their charismatic leader Zack Polanski. Appearing on “The Last Leg” back in November where he gave a pseudo PM speech outside a mockup of Number 10. Coupled with his party's growing social media strength - see their Christmas Carol Instagram reel as an example - the Greens, too has placed themselves as a strong contender not just to Reform, but to Labour too. For Labour this was now a fight on two fronts - the Left and the Right. 


The Result: Predictive Polling Vs. Actual

Only the results matter. Whatever predictions were made are now replaced with cold, hard data provided by the electorate of Gorton and Denton between 7 am to 10 pm on February the 26th 2026. 


So, how did they do? 

  • Hannah Spencer (Green Party) - 41 %

  • Matt Goodwin (Reform UK) - 29 %

  • Angeliki Stogia (Labour Party) - 26 %


With the Greens doing exceptionally well, defeating Reform, and having a clear majority of 4,000, it's clear that the traditional political system is not working. The Greens ran a campaign that connected with the local people - Labour's attempt to, but due to ongoing factions between the Party's Policy and progress, failed to connect. Sources on the doorstep commented about confusion regarding national policy focused on challenging Reform. Clearly, to commentators on BBC Five Live this morning (Friday 27th), Labour are struggling to identify their core vote base. 


Was this expected? Look, the polling from the Labour party showed that Labour were the ‘credible’ alternative to Reform, stating the Greens couldn't win here. However, the picture is very different. Independently, I believed the outcome would go one of two ways: 1) Reform win in a narrow split race between Green and Labour, or, 2) a massive swing to the Greens with Labour's voters transferring to avoid a Reform mega victory, and voice frustrations. 


While it is undeniable that the Greens have done well, some of their policies are questionable. Now, I'm not discussing the drug policy, which received much attention throughout the campaign, but actually the claims of “free higher education”. As someone who has written about this a number of times, free is not actually free. Universities cost a lot of money to run and rely on finding to do so. Currently, student loans are not high enough to support this. To achieve “free” higher education would mean absorbing the cost of university by the taxpayer, and a smaller percentage actually having access to this. While the Labour government has moved its Higher Education targets to push more to either take up a degree or a ‘gold standard’ apprenticeship, it hasn't vowed to cut university funding or places. To achieve a free education would require fewer spaces or an immense taxation effort. While the Greens want to increase taxation on the super wealthy, they must also consider the possibility of closing loopholes, and avoiding companies profiting from here and retaining the profits abroad. 


While leader, Zack Polanski, commented that the Greens are now here to replace Labour, does this result reflect this? To an extent, yes. People are clearly frustrated, but they are also scared of Reform. This was a campaign to “appeal for trust” and clearly, the Greens have succeeded. In the short term, it must be said that the Greens have well and truly replaced a former “safe” Labour seat. 



The Take Away:

While the seat may have been lost by Labour, this by-election has served as a masterclass in persuasion. The Greens and Labour focused on a campaign of persuasion against hatred and disunity. While Reform instead turned to popular policies on immigration and urgency to address the issues they saw in the wider British political sphere. However, the Greens were more effective. 


Change is not happening quickly enough for some, and so they want a new alternative. No matter the progress claimed by the government, for many, the cost of living remains an issue. Messages matter, and it was social media that showed how parties interacted not just with the voter, but with the press and the wider public too, at this election. Social media was the platform for persuasion.


This election was based on a desire to persuade that Labour and the Greens were the only way to ‘stop’ Reform. However, Labour's popularity as the governing party struggles, ultimately affecting their polling. 


Sources:

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DVQMZTRijde/?igsh=bWFwbmw3czZnbTds 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/feb/23/gorton-and-denton-byelection-greens-reform-manchester 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/constituencies/E14001251 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr453rvy6kvo 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cp8rjk02r0jt

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